How to read this
Each word is a heading, then the snapshot figures, then one short paragraph: what that contract counts, how often the speaker used that wording in the transcripts or settled markets we checked, and whether this event changes that. Plurals and possessives count. A slash means either word. Other inflections do not.
Our estimate is a judgment, in percent, that the contract resolves YES. The YES price is the snapshot bid–ask in cents. The gap after the fee is that estimate (or one minus it, on NO) minus the ask, minus about 0.07 × price × (1 − price). “Our lean” is the side where that gap is at least 5¢, the quote is two-sided, and the speaking window has not started. It is an opinion, not an instruction. Once the window has started, the figures stay up as a snapshot and the lean comes down.
The featured card is separate. This site is read-only. It does not place trades. The rules under each event are the contract, not the paragraph. Read the “Prices as of” line. If the snapshot is old, the tape is not a live quote.